Intelligence agencies have warned the administration and the government of the possibility of a severe backlash if immediate steps are not taken to dismantle the militant terrorist organisations in the province.

Chief of Tehrik-e-Jaffria Pakistan, a political ally of the PML government, Allama Syed Sajid Ali Naqvi has already called for Army's intervention to stop violence against his community. Addressing mourners at Karamdad Qureshi after the burial of 17 Shias, he warned the government that 'peace-loving Shias' would be forced to retaliate if the killings continued. The divide between the two communities, who had lived in relative harmony for many centuries, was given a bloody turn back in the 1980s when a group of Deobandi militants formed the Anjuman Sipah-e-Sahaba (ASS), to wage 'war' against the Shia landholders in Jhang.

The ASS, later re-named as the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), was established during the 'Islamisation' reign of late military dictator Gen Ziaul Haq, and coincided with the Iranian revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini. Religious scholars say militancy among the rival extremist groups intensified in the wake of 'Jihad' in Afghanistan as Pakistan, particularly the central and southern Punjab, served as the breeding grounds where young freedom-fighters were inducted, prepared and trained for the Afghan Jihad.

Most of these freedom-fighters returned home after the Russian forces pulled out in the early 1980s, and brought with them a highly motivated cadre of militants set for Jihad, as well as sizeable supplies of arms. Almost the entire leadership of the militant Sunni outfit, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, is made up of people who have fought in Afghanistan.

To counter the alleged Sunni militancy, Shia militants formed the Sipah-e-Muhammad of Pakistan in 1985. Rivalry between the two groups intensified when the SSP founder Haq Nawaz Jhangvi was assassinated in March 1990. The same year Iranian diplomat Sadiq Ganji was gunned down in Lahore. In 1997, Jhangvi's successor Zia-ur-Rehman Farooqi and 26 others were killed in a bomb blast in the Lahore Sessions Court.

In the aftermath, Iranian diplomat Muhammad Ali Rahimi and six locals were killed in an attack on the Iranian Cultural Centre in Multan. In between these high-profile killings, scores of innocent Shias and Sunnis, having no links with any of the sectarian outfits, were put to death.

Till 1997, the comparison of tit-for-tat murders was almost identical; but since police dismantled the Shia militant outfit Sipah-e-Muhammad of Pakistan in Lahore, the violence has largely been one-sided. It was perhaps in this backdrop that in the aftermath of the Muzzafargarh massacre, police deviated from their early practice of going after militants of both the sides after any major incident, and focussed solely on targetting the Sunni extremists.

Police rounded up around 450 activists of the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan and its more militant splinter group, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. Statistics gathered by The News about the pattern of violence reveal that Shia militancy had reduced drastically in the last year. In 1997, the bloodiest year in the history of sectarian violence, 77 Sunnis were killed, but in 1998 the violence remained a one-sided affair. Three Sunnis were killed against 74 Shias in 1998.

Break-up of incidents of sectarian violence: In 1990, 12 cases of violence were reported against Shias, killing 14 persons of the community; while 13 Sunnis were killed in 10 cases in the same period. In 1991, 29 Shias were killed in 24 cases of violence against 23 Sunnis killed in 14 cases. In 1992, 11 Shias were killed in 12 cases of violence against six Sunnis killed in five cases reported during the whole year.

During 1993, 17 Shias were killed in 12 cases of sectarian violence as compared to 11 Sunnis killed in nine cases. In 1994, 39 Shias were murdered in 20 incidents while 23 Sunnis were killed in 17 cases. In 1995, 36 Shias were killed in 22 cases of sectarian violence against 22 Sunnis killed in 16 cases. In 1996, 56 Shias were killed in 26 cases of violence while 34 Sunnis were killed in 10 cases.

The year 1997 proved the bloodiest in terms of violence and deaths in the history of sectarian strife in Punjab. Out of 195 killed in the year, 118 were Shia and 77 Sunni. The month of August, which ironically enough also marks Pakistan's independence, remained the worst when 45 persons were killed, including 19 Sunnis and 26 Shias.